It's been 100 years since Lenin and the Bolsheviks overthrew the government, and its legacy remains visible even today in the buildings and monuments scattered throughout St Petersburg.
'Economically, if there are too many losers, macro-demand will suffer and undercut growth.' 'In more developed societies, the issue is resolved through the provision of safety nets, which don't exist in India.' points out T N Ninan.
'We are moving away from the Modi promise of less government,' says T N Ninan.
'The Make in India target of getting manufacturing to account for 25% of GDP by 2022 is quite impossible to achieve.' 'As for the role of technology in the average Indian's life, it is still quite basic -- mobile phones and Mars successes notwithstanding,' says T N Ninan.
The Modi government's record on governance is better than that of UPA-2, but not better than UPA-1, observes T N Ninan.
'China has reclaimed, after two years, its mantle as the world's fastest-growing large economy.' 'This, when its working age population is shrinking, while ours is growing.' 'And talking of jobs, China expects to create 11 million urban jobs this year; for India, don't ask,' says T N Ninan.
A new study shows that the bottom half of the population enjoyed only 15 per cent of national income in 2013-14, down sharply from 24 per cent in the early 1980s.
If Mr Modi and his team expect to win the 2019 elections, groundwork for improved performance in their second term should be done now.
'The disruptions caused by demonetisation and GST will be behind us in another six months.' 'That should give growth a bounce; some coming quarters could well report 7-plus per cent growth.' 'But can that rebound be sustained, or will it be like the bounce of a dead cat?' asks T N Ninan.
'There is economic danger: Not inflation, but a slowdown that feeds an employment crisis,' says T N Ninan.
'The entire government-owned banking system (excluding SBI) is now in the red.' 'But worse is to come,' warns T N Ninan.
'The government's full five-year term is unlikely to deliver more than 7+ per cent growth.' 'That's creditable, but no different from the 7.2 per cent achieved in the previous five years (2009 to 2014).' 'Those who expected the change of government to deliver a change of tempo would be disappointed,' says T N Ninan.
'If the Opposition believes the BJP is out to undermine the principles on which the Constitution rests, they had better start behaving as though they believe in those principles,' says T N Ninan.
'Surplus money in individuals' pockets has moved away from real estate and flowed into the stock market either directly or through mutual funds.' 'This being one reason for the continuing surge in stock prices.' 'Market indices have soared to levels that are well above historical averages for price-earnings ratios.' 'Market pundits insist that this is not a stock price bubble, but when was the last time the pundits called a bubble a bubble?'
'The two-word answer is: Proper oversight,' says T N Ninan.
'The Chinese have taken to telling their Indian interlocutors to bear in mind the 5:1 disparity in the sizes of the two economies.' 'The message from Beijing, says T N Ninan, is clear: Acknowledge superior Chinese power, and behave accordingly.'
'While the GST is structured to be an all-encompassing tax and to create a vastly expanded digital network of recorded transactions, no one knows how traders long used to avoiding taxes will apply their ingenuity,' says T N Ninan.
'Somehow, I don't see the Modi government shutting down Air India.' 'So, Mallya may prove to be luckier than the government; at least his financial clock has stopped ticking,' says T N Ninan.
The shift from 'one country, one tax' to four tax rates could dilute possible gains on GDP, warns T N Ninan.
If Modi wants to be a man of history, he must make hard choices that will pay off down the road, says T N Ninan.
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